Durham University, Department of Mathematical Sciences
Durham, United Kingdom
Tuesday 14 to Saturday 18 July 2009


Joerg Stoye

Statistical Inference for Interval Identified Parameters


This papers analyzes the construction of confidence intervals for a parameter that is "interval identified," that is, the sampling process only reveals upper and lower bounds on it even in the limit. Analysis of inference for such parameters requires one to reconsider some fundamental issues. To begin, it is not clear which object -- the parameter or the set of parameter values characterized by the bounds -- should be asymptotically covered by a confidence region. Next, some straightforwardly constructed confidence intervals encounter severe problems because sampling distributions of relevant quantities can change discontinuously as parameter values change, leading to problems that are familiar from the pre-testing and model selection literatures. I carry out the relevant analyses for the simple model under consideration, but also emphasize the generality of problems encountered and connect developments to general themes in the larger and rapidly developing literature on inference under partial identification. Results are illustrated with an application to the Survey of Economic Expectations.

Keywords. Partial identification, bounds, confidence regions, hypothesis testing, uniform inference, moment inequalities, subjective expectations.

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Department of Economics
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Joerg Stoye

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