This paper presents a model of how military commanders estimate the threat posed by the enemy in a tactical situation, and how they employ own forces to control that threat. The model is based on interviews with nine commanders from the Swedish navy and the purpose is to find automatic and adequate methods for reasoning about strategic issues based on the long-time experience of highly qualified military officers. The results show that the number of enemy units, the types of enemy units, the behavior of the enemy units, and the uncertainties regarding the number, types, and behavior determines the threat in a tactical situation. The own course of action works as a threat altering function to control that threat. When the commander should decide on a course of action, we suggest that it should be selected so it minimizes the expected threat.
Keywords. Military decision making, threat, worst case, expected value, imprecise probabilities
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Authors addresses:
Christofer Waldenström
Tomtebogatan 32
SE-113 38 Stockholm
Love Ekenberg
Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences
Stockholm University
Forum 100,
SE-164 40, Kista,
SWEDEN
Mats Danielson
Electrum 230
SE-164 40 Kista
E-mail addresses:
| Christofer Waldenström | christofer.waldenstrom@fhs.se |
| Love Ekenberg | lovek@dsv.su.se |
| Mats Danielson | mad@dsv.su.se |